Does the Election Really Impact the DC Real Estate Market?

With the presidential election only a month away, the question on many people's minds is: 

Does it impact the DC real estate market? 

It's certainly a hot topic, with many opinions about the potential influence elections have on housing here in the capital. 

But what’s the actual impact of a change in office, from one presidency to the next? Let’s take a closer look.

First, it’s important to distinguish between the change in office and the potential future implications of who’s elected. Here, we’re focusing on the tangible effects of transitioning from one presidency to another, not speculating on future policies.

From my conversations with clients over the years, there's a common perception that every election season brings about a significant migration of people in and out of DC. But, honestly? I haven't really seen that happen. Despite the buzz, it’s not like a switch is flipped and suddenly there’s a mass exodus or influx of residents.

I even did a bit of research, and while there’s not much hard data out there, here’s my take: Roughly 21% of DC workers are employed by the federal government, but most of those positions aren’t affected by the election. Let’s break it down further—there are 535 members of Congress, each with an average of 15 staffers, totaling about 8,000 people. Many of these staffers are already in DC or in similar roles, and even if we assume that half of them might be moving, that’s around 4,000 people.

Election Impact on Capitol Hill Rentals

I do believe, however, that the election has an impact on Capitol Hill’s rental market. Many congressional staffers are likely to rent rather than buy—understandably, given that staffer salaries average around $70,000, and DC home prices are often beyond reach. Plus, their employment can be transient depending on the outcome of elections, which makes renting the more practical choice. Likewise, many members of Congress maintain their primary residence back in their home district and commute to DC, rather than buying a home here.

So, yes, there are certainly real estate transactions influenced by the election—but is it enough to really shake up the market? In my experience, it’s not a high enough number to significantly alter supply and demand forces. While the elections might make a few headlines in the real estate world, their impact on the broader DC market seems more subtle than seismic.